Donald Trump, the elected President of the United States, has sparked considerable controversy with his hardline stance on tariff policies. Seth Carpenter, Chief Global Economist at Morgan Stanley, mentioned in an interview that Trump’s proposed tariffs would lead to higher inflation and weaken future economic growth in the U.S.
Since his campaign, Trump has repeatedly claimed he intends to impose tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imported goods, with an additional 60% to 100% tariff on Chinese products.
Many economists have already warned that the intensity and scope of global trade friction could escalate, potentially resulting in retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.
Current pressing questions include whether these tariffs will be implemented, when they will take effect, and how quickly.
In an interview during Morgan Stanley’s annual Asia-Pacific summit in Singapore, Carpenter pointed out that if Trump’s proposed tariff policy is implemented, it will lead to higher inflation.
He also noted that if these measures are enacted simultaneously, they could cause a “massive negative shock” to the economy. However, he maintained Morgan Stanley’s basic assumption that these tariffs will be phased in starting in 2025.
“It is clear that tariffs will push up inflation; it is also clear that not only will the economies of countries subjected to tariffs be dragged down, but the U.S. economy will also suffer… We believe that by 2026, due to these tariff policies and other measures, U.S. economic growth will begin to decline significantly.”
Not only Carpenter shares this concern; Mark Malek, Chief Information Officer at Siebert, also pointed out that if the proposed tariffs are implemented—especially on top of the tariffs already imposed by the Biden administration—a, a range of industries, including automotive, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, and retail, will face higher inflation.
Malek stated that Trump’s proposal to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, combined with Biden’s current 100% tariff on electric vehicles made in China, will “seriously impact” the automotive industry. Additionally, a general 10% tariff on imported consumer electronics will increase costs for companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple. These high costs will ultimately be passed on to consumers, leading to higher inflation.
Data shows that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 2.6% in October compared to the same period last year, slightly up from a 2.4% increase in September. Despite this slight uptick, the U.S. The inflation rate is on a downward trend after reaching multi-year highs, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
Currently, the official tariff policy has not been fully announced, leading to ongoing fluctuations in various investment markets, including U.S. stocks, bonds, the dollar, and gold. MAXE advises ordinary investors to stay vigilant and avoid making blind investments at this stage. New developments in the financial market could easily result in losses for investors’ portfolios.
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